Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 9th - 15th December 2019

Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 9th - 15th December 2019

CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS


Monday: JN GDP, Current Account, CN Trade Balance (tentative), GE Trade Balance, EU Sentix Investor Confidence, UK BBC Question Time Special Under 30s (8.30pm), US CB Employment Trends Index, 3-yr Auction, CA Housing Starts, Building Permits, RBA Lowe Speaks


Tuesday: JN Machine Tool Orders, AU NAB Business Survey, Business Confidence, House Price Index, CN CPI/PPI, FR Non-Farm Payrolls, FR/IT Industrial Production, UK GDP, Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Construction Output, Trade Balance, NIESR GDP Estimate (tentative), GE ZEW Economic Sentiment, 2-yr Auction, UK BoE Financial Stability Report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism, Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labour Costs, WASDE Report, 10-yr Auction, Weekly API Inventories, ECB's Visco Speaks


Wednesday: JN PPI, WR OPEC Monthly Report, US CPI, Weekly DoE Inventories, Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, Summary of Economic Projections, CA Capacity Utilisation Rate


Thursday: JN Core Machinery Orders, AU MI Inflation Expectations, RBA Bulletin, GE/FR CPI (F), IT Quarterly Unemployment Rate, 3/7/30yr Auction, SP 3/5/10-yr Auction, EU Industrial Production, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections, Press Conference, Euro Summit, UK General Election (Amplify LIVE on YouTube from 2130GMT), RICS House Price Balance, US Weekly Jobless, PPI, 30-yr Auction, CA New Housing Price Index, BoC's Poloz Speaks


Friday: JN Tankan Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, CN FDI, M2 Money Supply, New Loans, IT Industrial New Orders, Sales, EU Euro Summit, UK Inflation Expectations, US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Fed's Williams Speaks


SundayUS Deadline on $156bln Tariffs Chinese Imports



MACRO VIEW - Anthony Cheung, Head of Market Analysis (@AWMCheung)


Countdown to the UK General Election with opinion polls still indicative of a Conservative majority. However, a sense of caution remains in the air given the surprise outcomes of the 2016 referendum and Theresa May's hung parliament in 2017.

NB: Sam North and I will be covering the whole night LIVE on the Amplify Trading YouTube channel from 2130GMT.

The 'Tariff Man' was back with a vengeance last week prompting large volatility in global stock indices. This trend looks set to continue ahead of the next round of US tariffs on Chinese goods due this Sunday. The question is whether Trump opts for a delay or chooses to deliver on his hawkish rhetoric with the knowledge that US stocks remain close to record all-time highs.

The FOMC hold their final interest rate decision of the year in what should be a fairly dull affair, despite an update to the infamous dot-plot matrix. Having executed three rate cuts in 2019, the market is not expecting any further rate changes until well into the 2H20.

Meanwhile in Europe, Christine Lagarde hosts her first formal press conference as President with an update due in the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Continuity is set to be deployed with policy on auto-pilot until the end of the year.

You can watch my full briefing from earlier today HERE, or jump to a specific section in the chapters below:


  • A review of market activity last week (00:00)

  • Update on the latest US/China trade talks ahead of the tariff deadline on Sunday (3:27)

  • Conservatives remain ahead in the opinion polls as the general election looms (9:52)

  • The Fed and ECB expected to remain on policy auto pilot for now (18:32)

  • A review of the overall calendar for the week (21:52)



TECHNICAL VIEW


S&P 500 futures



WTI Crude futures



EUR/USD futures



GBP/USD futures



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