Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 6th-10th January 2020

Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 6th-10th January 2020

CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS:


Monday: JN Manufacturing PMI, CN Caixin Services PMI, GE Retail Sales, SP/IT/FR/GE/EU Services PMI (F), UK Services PMI, EU Sentix Investor Confidence, PPI, US Services PMI (F), AU Services PMI 


Tuesday: JN Services PMI, 10-yr Auction, IT Public Debt Deficit, CPI, SP Consumer Confidence, EU Flash CPI, Retail Sales, UK House of Commons Re-Opens, 10-yr Auction, US Trade Balance, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 3-yr Auction, Weekly API Inventory, CA Trade Balance, Ivey PMI, NZ GDT Price Index


Wednesday: AU Building Approvals, GE Factory Orders, 10-yr Auction, FR Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence, Current Account, SP Business Confidence, EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Services/Industrial Sentiment, UK Halifax House Price Index, Labour Productivity, US ADP Employment Change, 10-yr Auction, Consumer Credit, Weekly DoE Inventories, EU President Von Der Leyen Meets UK PM Johnson


Thursday: AU Trade Balance, CN CPI/PPI, JN 30-yr Auction, GE Trade Balance, Industrial Production, IT Monthly Unemployment Rate, SP 3/5/10-yr Auctions, FR 10-yr Auction, EU ECB Minutes, Unemployment Rate, UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor, RICS House Price Balance, US Challenger Job Cuts, Weekly Jobless Claims, 30-yr Auction, CA Housing Starts, Building Permits, Fed's Clarida, Williams, Evans, Bullard speak


Friday: JN Leading Index, FR/SP/IT Industrial Production, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesales Inventories, WASDE Report, Baker Hughes Rig Count, CA Unemployment Rate, Employment Change



MACRO OVERVIEW


Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high as markets await how, and in what form, Iran may retaliate in response to a US drone strike that killed the Quds Force leader Qassim Soleimani. 


Middle Eastern stocks were hammered at the re-opening of trade yesterday and the Saudi Arabian CDS jumped even more aggressively than when missiles struck the Aramco network back in September last year. 


For now, the flight to quality bid in other global assets appears to have stabilised somewhat but sentiment is likely to remain fragile throughout the week until the dust settles. Prudent planning for all scenarios would be suggested here following the latest news that Iraq's parliament has voted to expel US troops from the country with Iran stating it would no longer abide by any limits on its enrichment of uranium.


Elsewhere, it's back to Brexit for UK PM Boris Johnson. After spending two weeks in the Caribbean sun, it's back to business as the House of Commons re-opens on Tuesday and he meets the EU President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday at Number 10.


From a data perspective, highlights include Germany Factory Orders and Euro-zone Flash CPI, with the week finishing with the delayed release of US Non-Farm Payrolls. Four Fed officials speak on Thursday, with Clarida and Williams still voting members of the FOMC in 2020, given their positions as Vice Chair and President of the FRBNY.


You can access my full briefing filmed earlier today HERE.



TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


WTI crude futures



S&P 500 futures



GBP/USD futures



Have a great week ahead.


Regards,

Anthony


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