Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 2nd - 6th December 2019

Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 2nd - 6th December 2019


Monday: AU Business Inventories, Building Approvals, MI Inflation Gauge, JN Manufacturing PMI, CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI, SP/FR/GE/EU Manufacturing PMI (F), UK Manufacturing, US Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ECB's Lagarde Testifies At EU Parliament, ECB's Holzmann, Rehn Speak, NATO Leaders Summit in London (Incl. Trump)

TuesdayAU RBA Interest Rate Decision, Statement, Current Account, JN 10-yr Auction, FR Government Budget Balance, SP Unemployment Change, EU PPI, UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor, Construction PMI, US ISM NY Index, Weekly API Inventories, Total Vehicle Sales, NZ GDT Price Index, ECB's Coeure Speaks, AU Services PMI

Wednesday: CN Caixin Services PMI, AU GDP, JN Services PMI, SP/IT/FR/GE/EU Services PMI (F), GE 10-yr Auction, UK Services PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Weekly DoE Inventories, CA BoC Interest Rate Decision, Labour Productivity

Thursday: AU Trade Balance, Retail Sales, JN 30-yr Auction, GE Factory Orders, SP Industrial Production, 3/5/10-yr Auctions, Consumer Confidence, FR 3/5/10-yr Auctions, EU Q3 GDP (F), Employment Change, Retail Sales, EU Finance Ministers Meeting, Eurogroup Meeting, WR OPEC Meeting Day 1, US Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders, CA Trade Balance, Ivey PMI, BoJ's Harada, BoC's Lane Speaks

Friday: JN Leading Index, GE Industrial Production, FR Trade Balance, Current Account, IT Retail Sales, UK Halifax House Price Index, WR OPEC Meeting Day 2, US Change Non-Farm Payrolls (Covered LIVE on Amplify Trading YouTube Channel), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (P), Wholesale Inventories, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Consumer Credit, CA Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, UK PM Johnson & Labour Corbyn BBC Leaders Debate

MACRO OVERVIEW: Anthony Cheung - Head of Market Analysis

A phase 1 trade deal between the US and China remains elusive, with the negotiation likely to continue to dominant the macro themes this week. The latest news this morning is that the deal has stalled because of the Hong Kong legislation passed by the President last week. However, despite this news markets are reflecting renewed risk appetite to start the week after Chinese Manufacturing PMI increased at its fastest pace in three years in the month of November.

Separately, yields in Germany are firmly higher following a change in Merkel's junior coalition partner SPD who have previously suggested large scale spending plans to the tune of half a trillion Euros over the next 10 years.

US President Donald Trump arrives in Britain on Monday to attend the NATO leaders' summit in Hertfordshire. The event will be of particular interest for any potential implications on the UK general election campaigns. Focus will likely be on national security, the NHS and any future trade relationships.

US jobs data is littered throughout the week culminating in the release of Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday (headline exp. 190k). At present, the market is firmly priced for the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

In the crude market, OPEC begin their two-day meeting on Thursday which comes after WTI crude fell 4% on Friday with China threatening retaliation in response to US legislation in backing anti-government protesters in Hong Kong and amid US oil production returning back to record levels.

The Iraqi oil minister has said this morning that OPEC and its allies will consider deeper cuts with reduction possibly extending up to 400,000 b/d. While the Russian energy minister Novak said on Friday that it was too early to talk about extending the OPEC+ production agreement and that the producer group should take a decision closer to April.

Finally, the RBA and BoC hold their interest rate announcements with both Banks expected to remain on hold at 0.75% and 1.75% respectively.  

Watch the full briefing delivered early this morning HERE.

Key topics can be viewed by clicking on the timestamps below:

  • Overview of market sentiment at the EU/UK open and headlines in play(00:00)

  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI's exceed expectations(4:11)

  • US/China trade deal hangs in the balance following H.K legislation(5:34)

  • Angela Merkel's coalition in trouble following surprise SPD victory(7:22)

  • UK General Election polls continue to narrow(9:27)

  • Iraq says it wants deeper supply cuts ahead of OPEC meeting (12:02)

  • Review of the main calendar events for the week ahead(14:22)

  • Sam North gives his technical view across the charts (17:30)

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW: Sam North - Senior Associate

S&P 500

WTI Crude futures

GBP/USD futures

EUR/USD futures

Any questions please feel free to leave a comment and have a great week ahead.

Anthony and Sam.

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