Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 25th - 29th November 2019

Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 25th - 29th November 2019

CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS


Monday: JN Leading Index, SP PPI, GE Ifo Business Climate, UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey, US Chicago Fed National Activity, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, 2-yr Auction, CA Wholesale Sales, NZ Retail Sales, ECB's Holzmann, Villeroy, Lane, RBA's Debelle Speak


Tuesday: JN BoJ Core CPI, GE GfK Consumer Climate, IT Trade Balance, UK Gross Mortgage Approvals, US Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, House Price Index, New Homes Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index, 5-yr Auction, Weekly API Inventories, NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Trade Balance, ECB,s Coeure, Fed's Powell Speaks


Wednesday: CN Industrial Profits, GE Import Price Index, 5-yr Auction, FR Consumer Confidence, IT Business/Consumer Confidence, UK BRC Shop Price Index, BoE MPC Treasury Committee Hearings (tentative), US Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Q3 GDP (P), Core PCE Prices, Real Consumer SpendingChicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Spending, Weekly DoE Inventories, 7-yr Auction, Beige Book, ECB's Lane


ThursdayUS Thanksgiving (Closed), JN Retail Sales, NZ ANZ Business Confidence, SP CPI, Business Confidence, Retail Sales, IT 5/10-yr Auction, GE CPI, EU Business Climate, Business and Consumer Survey, Consumer Confidence, Industrial/Services Sentiment, M3 Money Supply, UK Nationwide HPI, Sky News GE Debate, CA Current Account, ECB's Villeroy Speaks


FridayUS Thanksgiving (Early Close), JN Industrial Production, Housing Starts, AU HIA New Homes Sales, Unemployment Rate, FR GDP, HICP, IT Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI, GDP, SP Current Account, GE Unemployment Change/Rate, EU CPI, Unemployment Rate, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Approvals/Lending, M4 Money Supply, BoE Consumer Credit, BBC GE Debate, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, Retailers (Black Friday), CA GDP

SaturdayCN Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing PMI



MACRO OVERVIEW


A holiday impacted week with US Thanksgiving on Thursday. As such, the calendar is front loaded on Tuesday and Wednesday with lots of US data on the docket. Focus will be on the second reading of Q3 GDP and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, the first since his impromptu meeting with US President Trump last week.

Meanwhile in the UK, the Tories continue to have a commanding lead in the latest general election polls with two more live televised debates from Sky News and the BBC this week.

BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are among those on Wall Street touting GBP as a top trade for 2020 if Boris can win and push through a Brexit deal. BofAML expect the currency to hit $1.39 by the end of 2020 and GS sees a rally of more than 4% versus the EUR by the end of Q1 2020.

Finally, US retail updates on Black Friday are always of interest and Chinese PMI data on Saturday will be important to see if the recent lift in the manufacturing indicator is sustained.

Catch today's full week ahead briefing HERE. Key topics covered are as follows:


  • Overview of the market sentiment at the European open (00:00)

  • Hong Kong stocks (Heng Seng) up overnight following big pro-democracy win in district elections (7:04)

  • China says it is 'very close' to a trade deal with the US and that it will lower thresholds for criminal punishments for those stealing IP (9:37)

  • Tories unveil their General Election manifesto as polls show Boris has a commanding lead over the Labour Party (12:02)

  • Summary of the major calendar events for the week (19:31)

  • Trader Charlie Hyett gives his thoughts on the key technical levels for the day and week ahead (23:53)


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

S&P 500 futures


WTI Crude futures


EUR/USD futures


GBP/USD futures



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