Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 16th - 20th December 2019

Amplify Trading Weekly Strategy: 16th - 20th December 2019

CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS


Monday: JN Manufacturing/Service PMI, CN Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, House Prices, FR/GE/EU Manufacturing PMI (P), IT CPI, UK Manufacturing/Service PMI (P), Rightmove House Price Index, CBI Industrial Trends Orders, BoE Financial Stability Report/Stress Tests, US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Manufacturing/Services PMI (P), NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Data, UK PM Re-Introduce Withdrawal Agreement Bill (tentative), Reshuffle of UK Cabinet 


Tuesday: NZ ANZ Business Confidence, AU RBA Meeting Minutes, IT Trade Balance, UK Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings Index, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation Rate, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTs Job Openings, Weekly API Inventories, CA Manufacturing Sales, NZ GDT Price Index, Current Account, Fed's Williams, Kaplan, Rosengren, ECB's Rehn Speak


Wednesday: JN Trade Balance, GE PPI, Ifo Business ClimateUK CPI/PPI/RPI, EU CPI, Construction Output, US Weekly DoE Inventories, CA CPI, NZ GDP, Trade Balance, Fed's Evans, ECB's Coeure Speak


Thursday: AU Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, JN BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, FR Business Survey, UK BoE Interest Rate Decision, Retail Sales, US Philly Fed Manufacturing, Current Account, Existing Home Sales, Leading Index, CA ADP Non Farm Payrolls, Wholesale Sales, UK Govt Programme Set Out in Queen's Speech


Friday: JN CPI, CN PBoC Loan Prime Rate, GfK Consumer Climate, FR Consumer Spending, PPI, IT PPI, Trade Balance, EU Current Account, Consumer Confidence, UK GDP F (Q3), Business Investment, Gross Mortgage Approvals, PSNB, BoE Quarterly Bulletin, US GDP F (Q3), PCE Prices, Corporate Profits, Real Consumer Spending, Core PCE Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (F), Personal Income/Spending, KC Fed Manufacturing PMI, CA Budget Balance, Retail Sales, New Housing Price Index



MACRO OVERVIEW - Anthony Cheung: Head of Market Analysis (@AWMCheung)


No rest for Boris Johnson as he will aim to re-introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill this week, make a minor cabinet reshuffle and set out his government's legislative programme in the Queen's speech on Thursday.

January 31st remains the short-term target and although there may be some short-term relief for GBP the medium-term outlook remains unclear with the treacherous process of constructing and implementing a Brexit deal yet to begin.

In line with our expectations, US President Trump has halted new tariffs on China and will now look to leverage the recent all-time highs and good jobs data as a Christmas gift to the people and validation of his policies to date. However, it's not all festive cheer with news this weekend that China has threatened Germany and its prized auto manufactures should they ban Huawei 5G.

PMI data will be in focus on Monday with rate decisions due from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan on Thursday. Neither central bank is likely to surprise with the BoJ set to welcome the new commitment from Shinzo Abe to ramp up fiscal spending and with the BoE still cautious, awaiting more clarification on the Brexit process.

The full morning briefing can be found HERE, and a summary of the major topics and timestamps are located below.


  • An overview of market sentiment at the European open (00:00)What next for UK

  • PM Johnson as he now looks to deliver Brexit (2:16) US and China reach a phase-one deal but no date yet for next stage of talks (9:50)

  • China threatens retaliation should Germany ban Huawei 5G (11:53)

  • Bank of America see 3,333 for the S&P 500 by the 3rd of March 2020 (13:46)

  • China's factory and retail sectors shine as trade tensions thaw (14:25)

  • Japan's factory activity shrinks for eighth month in a row (14:36)

  • Wrap up of the main events for the week ahead (15:16)

  • Sam North provides his technical view across the charts (17:41)



TECHNICAL OVERVIEW - Sam North: Senior Associate (@snorth19)


S&P 500 futures



GBP/USD futures



EUR/USD futures



WTI crude futures




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