Monday: CN FDI, UK GDP, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Business Investment, Trade Balance, NISER GDP Estimate, US CB Employment Trends Index, Federal Budget Balance, Fed's Rosengren, Bostic Speak, Chinese Delegation Arrive In Washington
Tuesday: CN Trade Balance, New Loans, JN Current Account, IT 3/7/30-yr Auctions, UK 5-yr Auction, US NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, Real Earnings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Weekly API Inventories, Fed's Williams, George, ECB's Mersch Speak, Day 2 US-China Trade Talks, US Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo
Wednesday: JN Machine Tool Orders, FR/SP CPI, GE Annual GDP, 30-yr Auction, EU Industrial Production, Trade Balance, UK CPI/PPI/RPI, ONS House Prices, US PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Weekly DoE Inventories, Beige Book, BoJ's Kuroda, Fed's Harker, Kaplan, ECB's Weidmann, BoE's Saunders Speak, US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal Signed (tentative), US Earnings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Alcoa
Thursday: CN House Prices, JN PPI, Reuters Tankan Index, GE CPI (F), EU ECB Meeting Minutes, UK BoE Credit Conditions, Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Advanced Retail Sales, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Data, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bowman Speak, US Earnings: Morgan Stanley
Friday: CN GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, IT CPI, Trade Balance, EU CPI, Construction Output, UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, JOLTs Job Openings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (P), Baker Hughes Rig Count, Fed's Harker Speaks, US Earnings: Schlumberger
MACRO OVERVIEW The temporary escalation in Iran is likely to take a back seat this week, barring any surprises, as the Chinese delegation arrive in Washington on Monday ahead of the expected signing of phase 1 of the US-China trade deal. Markets are primed for a successful conclusion to part 1 but stranger things have happened so continued vigilance on the headlines throughout the first half of the week would be advised. US Corporate earnings season kicks off on Tuesday with JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo all due before the opening bell. Corporate profits are likely to have dropped for a second straight quarter at the end of 2019, dragging down annual earnings growth to the smallest in three years, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, from a US data perspective highlights include US CPI and advanced retail sales due on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. A busy week in the UK, with GDP, IP/MP, CPI and retail sales all on the docket. BoE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said in the FT this weekend that he will vote for an interest rate cut this month if there are no signs of economic improvement after the general election. If so, he would join MPC doves Haskel and Saunders in their push for immediate action and with Carney and Tenreyro expressing similar views, the pricing of a rate cut may need further adjustment in short-term rates. So in combination with usual Brexit related news some traditional economics might come back to the fold this week.
You can access a full video review of the weekly outlook HERE.
**BREAKING: UK GDP GDP contracted 0.3% in November, with manufacturing providing the main drag as the sectors shrunk more than expected. Markets are now pricing in a 52% probability that the MPC cut rates this month.
S&P 500 futures
WTI crude futures
Have a great week ahead.
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