Amplify Trading Global Markets Review - 9th September 2019

Amplify Trading Global Markets Review - 9th September 2019

Updated: Sep 10, 2019

Today's Highlights

  • UK House of Speaker Bercow announces resignations

  • UK Bill to avoid No-Deal becomes law

  • UK Parliament suspension to go ahead

Macro Review

Brexit gets close to its hard deadline on October 31st and you can already feel that things are just starting to spice up. Today, PM Johnson flew to Dublin to meet with Irish PM Varadkar and reiterated his intention to block an extension to Brexit beyond 31st October. Meanwhile, in Buckingham Palace, the Queen was giving Her royal assent to the bill that would make law the bill blocking a no-deal Brexit. A few hours later, Speaker of the House John Bercow decided to step down at the next general election - if Parliament votes for on Monday; otherwise he will step down at close of Parliament Business on Thursday, October 31.

Thus, now that No-Deal Brexit has been technically outlawed, can PM Johnson still implement is "leave-or-die" Brexit by the end of October?. Under the new Hilary-Benn-bill. PM Johnson might be forced to request a Brexit extension on 19th October, pushing the deadline back to 31st January 2020. However, two scenarios might prevent a further extension without interfering with the new Benn's Law.

- New Meaningful Vote: MPs approve the old Theresa May Brexit deal- MPs vote in favour of leaving the EU without a deal.

-Government to ignore the law. However, that would hold PM Johnson accountable for breaking the law and eligible to impeachment.

- New Election: The government could scrap the law, should the election return a House of Commons with a Tory majority.

Eventually. regardless of UK law, any extension to Brexit has to be agreed at unanimity by the 28 members of the EU (of which the UK is still a voting member). Moreover, there is a chance that other EU countries might not want to grant another delay after the 31st October deadline.

All cards are still on the tables, GBPUSD remains around weekly highs - sub 1.24 - as Parliament takes more control over Brexit. However, a looming General Election could increase uncertainty ahead. Good luck out there.

EU Close

If you missed the morning briefing from the desk click HERE

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