EU Can not be serious!?

EU Can not be serious!?

Weekly Strategy

19th – 23rd November 2018


Monday: EU Current Account, ECB Financial Stability Review, Eurogroup Meeting, Bundesbank Monthly Report, US NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed's Williams speaks

Tuesday: AU RBA Minutes, GE PPI, OPEC-JMMC Meeting, UK Inflation Report Hearing, ECOFIN Meeting, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, BoJ Kuroda, RBA Lowe, ECB's Weidmann, BoC's Wilkins, Lane speak

Wednesday: UK PSNB, CA Wholesale Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims, Revised University of Michigan Sentiment, Existing Homes Sales, Weekly DoE Inventories

Thursday: SP 10-yr bond auction, ECB Minutes, EU Consumer Confidence, CA Financial System Review, BoE's Saunders, BoC Wilkins speak, US Markets Closed - Thanksgiving

Friday: JN Flash Manufacturing PMI, JN Market Closed - Labour Thanksgiving, GE Final GDP, Flash FR/GE/EU Manufacturing/Service PMI's, CA CPI, Retail Sales, US Flash Manufacturing/Service PMI

I hope everyone has had a fantastic weekend after what was a superb week for market volatility. Unfortunately for me, mine was spent with my left arm in a sling following a freak football injury where I fractured my wrist. Any sympathy will be much appreciated and as such, this weekly strategy will be less text heavy due to only having one hand able to type. The weekend’s sporting triumphs for the Irish rugby team and English football team have only momentarily distracted the negative sentiment regarding Brexit and its full speed ahead now in what is expected to be another tumultuous week for Pound/Brexit related assets.

As you can see from above, Thanksgiving is this Thursday – which in most other years would suggest this week would be one of the slowest of the calendar year. However, following on from Friday’s Dovish FED comments and of course all things Brexit, I would suggest not to expect slow range-bound price action for the next five days. Without trying to tempt fate, in 2000, the Nasdaq fell 10% in the three days before Thanksgiving…..

To keep things easier for myself but also perhaps easier on the eye for you, I have attached a variety of charts with key levels and potential scenarios to consider for the week ahead.

GBP/USD Futures. Possible negative scenario reactions listed above. No leadership challenge and no more key resignations, along with a dovish FED could see us at 1.30 very quickly however.

S&P 500 Futures – The market has to make a decision soon. I favour one last attempt at All-Time-Highs, could that be this week? Market got a lift on Thursday/Friday with positive sentiment regarding trade talks and a series of dovish comments from the FED.

AUD/USD Futures: Favour the upside as it stands, shame the break of trendline didn’t allow chance to get in on retest. Trade war rhetoric main issue I see over next week or so

WTI Crude Oil Futures: $58 is a massive. If Resistance from February low and retest of March-June Trendline breaks - then it opens up a fair bit of room to the upside. DoE data surprise reaction to remain supported despite bearish report might have been the turning point.

EURUSD Futures: I expect the market to be dragged around via Brexit developments but from a technical point of view – a break above the Trendlines would be bullish and if we close/break below 1.1388 area then it would be bearish. Simple right?

Keep an eye on _____ for the week ahead;

- Brexit!

- Comments from the FED

- Tech stock performance

- Oil price

- Trade talk rhetoric

Feel free to ask me any questions that you have.

Hope you have a great week and for all those who celebrate on Thursday – a great Thanksgiving!

Sam North



Twitter @snorth19

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