Amplify Weekly Strategy: 7th - 10th May 2019

Amplify Weekly Strategy: 7th - 10th May 2019


CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS:


Tuesday: JN Manufacturing PMI, AU RBA Interest Rate Decision, Trade Balance, Retail Sales, GE Factory Orders, Industrial Production, FR Trade Balance, UK Halifax House Prices, EU Economic Forecasts, US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTs Job Openings, Loan Officer Survey, Consumer Credit, 3-yr Govt Bond Auction, Weekly API Inventories, CA Ivey PMI, NZ GDT Price Index (tentative), Fed's Kaplan, Quarles, BoE's Haldane, Cunliffe to speak, UK PM May Meets Opposition Leader Corbyn on Cross-Party Brexit Talks


Wednesday: JN Monetary Base, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, 10-yr Govt Bond Auction, NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, CN Trade Balance, GE 5-yr Govt Bond Auction, UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor, EU ECB Minutes, SA Election, US Weekly DoE Inventories, 10-yr Govt Bond Auction, CA Housing Starts, ECB's Draghi, BoE's Ramsden to speak, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He Visits Washington for Trade Talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif Meets Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov


ThursdayCN CPI/PPI, SP 3/5/10-yr Govt Bond Auction, UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor, RICS House Price Balance, 5-yr Govt Bond Auction, US Weekly Jobless Claims, PPI, Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Treasury Department Report (tentative), CA Trade Balance, New Housing Price Index, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Evans to speak, Weekly Commons Business Statement from Leader of House Leadsom


Friday: AU RBA Monetary Policy Statement, GE Trade Balance, FR/IT Industrial Production, FR Non-Farm Payrolls, IT Retail Sales, UK GDP, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Business Investment, UK Construction Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, US CPI, Real Earnings, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Federal Budget Balance, WASDE Report, CA Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Building Permits, Fed's Bostic, Williams, ECB's Coeure to speak



MACRO OVERVIEW - Anthony Cheung, Head of Market Analysis (@AWMCheung)
  • Introduction and overview of sentiment this morning (00:00)

  • Latest developments on talks between the US and China (2:45)

  • Why oil rallied yesterday despite potential disruptions to the trade deal (6:05)

  • AUD rallied overnight as RBA kept rates on hold (8:33)

  • Cross party talks recommence today as May is to draft a new customs law for Brexit deal (11:13)

  • What events to look out for this week (12:29)

  • Sam North gives an overview of the technical set-up across different asset classes (16:13)



TECHNICAL OVERVIEW - Sam North, Associate (@snorth19)

S&P 500 futures



The question traders will be wondering is whether we have just made the high for the medium-term. Personally, I think we still have room to go and from a sentiment point of view – as long as we stay above the high of 21st March (2866 on Futures), the bulls will remain in control. That high from late March offers a good level for the buyers to get in again to target back towards the recent highs. 


Technically, should we break through the All-Time-High, you would want to be aware of the psychological 3000.00 handle and the trendline matching up the two previous peaks (January and September 2018). To avoid getting caught out in the choppy mid-range price action, it would be advisable from a medium-term bias to wait for a break of the highs or a return to 2866 before deciding to get in.


MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: Still bullish



WTI Crude futures



I posted a poll on my twitter account last week asking whether we had seen the high of the year for Crude Oil and the results suggested the recent down move is just temporary. 


For the market to get higher technically it must hold firm with the recent trend-line but also break through the next two key resistance levels (yesterday’s high & 25th April low). Both those levels have offered good selling opportunities of late and can be used as a sentiment gauge going forward. 


A break lower could really start to get interesting if we close below $60, the 21st March high and the recent trend-line. I would keep one eye on the 0.382 Fibonacci level as well over the coming weeks as a good medium-term Long opportunity. 


MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: Neutral




Gold futures



This market is starting to shape up nicely. The 0.500 Fibonacci level along with the trend-line which both started at the 2018 Lows held firmly last week and we are very close to seeing how strong that area was. 


The 200 DMA also played its part in offering the buyers a place to get in, but should we drift lower and test all 3 support points again – I fear a break to 1250 and the December 14th low would come pretty quickly. To the upside, the high of 26th April is massively important. If price action hold firms and we see a break above that level, the 1300 handle and the 10th April would be a nice area to target. 


MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: Bearish



GBPUSD futures



Speaking of trend-lines, you can see just how important they are as a guide for sentiment changes. With Cable breaking above the trend-line on the 30th April, the market really took the opportunity to push on and make some solid gains. For the buyers to remain in control following this break, we will have to hold firm above 1.3100 or the key 1.3040 area will come back into play which since January has been so important for determining where price goes. 


I’ve listed the key resistance points above where we are trading but unless we have some new positive stories for Brexit, I’m not quite sure how much is left in this market in the short-term. 


MEDIUM-TERM BIAS: Neutral



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