Monday: AU/JN Manufacturing PMI, CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI, SP/IT/FR/GE/EU/UK/US Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Total Vehicle Sales, US President Trump State Visit Day 1, Fed Barkin, Bullard speak
Tuesday: AU Current Account, Retail Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision, JN 10-yr JGB Auction, FR Government Budget Balance, SP/IT Unemployment Change, EU Flash CPI, Unemployment Rate, UK Construction PMI, BRC Retail Sales Monitor, 5-yr Gilt Auction, US ISM NY Business Conditions, Factory Orders, Weekly API Inventories, NZ GDT Price Index, Fed's Powell, Williams, RBA's Lowe speak, US President Trump State Visit Day 2, Trump protest vote in London
Wednesday: AU Services PMI, GDP, CN Caixin Services PMI, SP/IT/FR/GE/EU/UK Services PMI, SP Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, EU Retail Sales, US ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Weekly DoE Inventories, Beige Book, Fed's Clarida, Bostic to speak, BoE's Ramsden, RBA Heath, US President Trump State Visit Day 3
Thursday: AU Trade Balance, GE Factory Orders, SP 3/5/10-yr Bond Auctions, FR 10-yr OAT Auction, EU GDP, Employment Change, ECB Interest Rate Decision + Press Conference, US Challenger Job Cuts, Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, CA Trade Balance, Ivey PMI, BoJ's Kuroda, BoE's Carney speak
Friday: JN Leading Index, GE/FR Trade Balance, GE/FR Industrial Production, IT Retail Sales, UK Halifax House Price Index, Inflation Expectations, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Consumer Credit, CA, UK PM May official resignation day
MACRO OVERVIEW - Anthony Cheung (@AWMCheung)
An overview of general market sentiment (00:00)
China ramp up response to Trump's threats in latest White Paper (2:45)
China's factory activity recovers but is this masking underlying weakness (5:50)
Markets continue to price in rate cuts from the Fed later this year (6:28)
WTI has its biggest loss in May since 2012 (8:19)
Fresh budget worries hit Italian assets (11:47)
Overview of the main calendar events for the week (15:25)
Technical review across major asset classes (19:14)
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW – Sam North (@snorth19)
S&P 500 futures
Another week, another gap lower over the weekend. Between global growth concerns and deteriorating trade talks, you would be forgiven for thinking we are back in Q4 of 2018. Searching for a potential support area may be tricky should none of the above improve, but certainly on the charts, 2716.00 to 2727.00 looks appealing.
The trend-line from the 3rd October, the low of the 8th March and the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the 2018 low to the ATH all coincide around that area.
How we close the coming days and week will be key to where this market goes on a medium-term and maybe even longer-term basis.
Below these levels, a quick run down towards the 8th February low shouldn’t be ruled out and for those looking at a move higher, the big obstacle remains to be the 2800 handle. If we are to push higher and close the day above that level, I would feel confident, at least technically that this market can look again at testing the highs.
WTI Crude Oil Futures
With one of the worst May’s in recent times behind us, can Crude Oil start to find some support? We have just tested a key area this morning and where price closes today and this week will be imperative for the bulls and bears.
Back in February and January, the failure to push lower resulted in a near 30% rise in price. Fast forward to now and a complete reversal has taken place. To the upside, the 8th March low would be an area I would have an eye on.
Every attempt to retrace since the 2019 high has ended in failure, so if we were to get above that I would feel a lot more comfortable if I were a buyer.
Having had a fourth consecutive week to the downside, we finally got a test of the all-important 1.2600 handle. That level, along with the multi-year trend-line and a test of the 11th December low offered up a good level of support despite a brief false breakout.
I would be keeping tabs on these lows and if we do get a close below – a push down to the 2016 & 2017 levels marked up on the chart would be the next points of interest.
As usual, Brexit will be the ultimate decider of this market, but should we have a move higher, I would be keeping a close eye on what happens on the 28th May high. A break and close above would be a big positive for the bulls and along with a failed test to break the year’s low – sentiment could start to shift quite quickly to the upside.
Looking at this chart, it feels as though you can argue your case depending on your agenda. On one side of things we have just had a failed test of the yearly low (bullish) and on the flipside every push higher has been met with failure and has been a good opportunity to sell (bearish).
The key level to the upside other than the high on the 28th May, would be the retest of the trend-line which now matches up nicely with the 13th May high. For those looking at a move lower, we will need to be aware of the 4th January 2017 which acts as the next market level of support below the low of this year.
Have a great week,
Anthony Cheung – Head of Market Analysis
Sam North – Associate
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