Monday: JN Showa Day Holiday, IT PPI, EU M3 Money Supply, Consumer Confidence, Business Climate, Services/Industrial Sentiment, US Core PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, BoE's Carney speaks, Indian Election Day (Phase 4 of 7), US Earnings: Alphabet
Tuesday: JN Holiday, CN Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMI, JN Housing Starts, Construction Orders, GE GfK Consumer Climate, Import Price Index, Unemployment Change/Rate, CPI, 2-yr Govt Bond Auction, FR CPI, Consumer Spending, Govt Budget Balance, SP CPI, GDP, Current Account, Retail Sales, IT CPI, GDP, 5/10-yr Govt Bond Auction, EU GDP, Unemployment Rate, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Nationwide HPI, US Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, Weekly API Inventories, CA GDP, BoC Poloz, Wilkins to speak, US Earnings: Apple, GE, McDonald's, Pfizer, Merck
Wednesday: JN Holiday, CN/FR/SP/IT/GE Labour Day Holiday, NZ Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, AU Manufacturing PMI, JN Monetary Policy Minutes, Manufacturing PMI, UK Nationwide HPI, Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approvals/Lending, US ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Weekly DoE Inventories, Construction Spending, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, Total Vehicle Sales, ECB's De Guindos, BoC's Poloz speak, US Earnings: Qualcomm, UK/EU Earnings: BP, GlaxoSmithKline
Thursday: CN Labour Day Holiday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, GE Retail Sales, SP/IT/FR/GE/EU Manufacturing PMI, UK Construction PMI, BoE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes, Press Conference, Local Elections, US Challenger Job Cuts, Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labour Costs, ISM NY Business Conditions, Factory Orders, ECB's Weidmann, Praet to speak, UK/EU Earnings: Lloyds Banking Group, Volkswagen
Friday: CN Labour Day Holiday, JN Constitutional Day, 10-yr Govt Bond Auction, AU Services PMI, Building Approvals, UK Service PMI, EU CPI/PPI, FR 10-yr Govt Bond Auction, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Goods Trade Balance, Markit Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Baker Hughes Rig Count, Fed's Evans, Williams to speak, UK/EU Earnings: HSBC, BASF
Saturday: JN/CN Holiday, Fed's Bullard, Daly, Kaplan, Mester to speak
MACRO OVERVIEW - Anthony Cheung (@AWMCheung)
As our regular readers will know, every Monday morning I deliver a briefing for the trading week ahead via our YouTube channel.
Rather than repeat myself in written form, I thought it would be more effective to issue specific chapter timestamps to this session so that you can watch which ever section is most relevant for you. I hope it makes things easier going forward and more to come throughout the week!
Introduction to the week ahead (00:00)
Why volatility in the Japanese Yen may increase over the next 10-days (01:43)
Chinese Manufacturing PMI important for weekly sentiment (02:40)
Thoughts on this week's US data and interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve (05:08)
Four factors to consider fundamentally with any GBP trade this week (09:01)
Spanish Socialist Party expected to win a second term but impact muted (13:28)
S&P reaffirm Italy's sovereign rating, is this important? (16:00)
Goldman Sachs view on why China will notably boost Euro-area growth in 2019 (16:51)
Hedge funds continue to add to long positions but are we nearing a top? (19:39)
164 S&P 400 companies (5/30 DJIA) reporting this week including Alphabet and Apple as well as BP, Glaxo and HSBC in the FTSE (22:30)
Sam North gives an overview of the technical set-up across different asset classes (24:02)
Sam and I will be covering the FOMC announcement LIVE on our YouTube channel this Wednesday evening. Click HERE to register for the webinar.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW - Sam North (@snorth19)
S&P 500 futures
We’ve seen a record high and a record close, but where do we go from here? I think we will see a test of the 3000.00 handle soon, we were only at 2900 a week ago and if we are to see a clean break of the All-Time-High, a faster move could be expected. The main issue I have with the Long at the moment is that each time we have reached a key level – we have come off slightly before eventually breaking on the second or third attempt.
On that basis, I would still be looking to buy the dip around 2900 or 2867 should the opportunity present itself. A considerable break below the 21st March high/2867 area of previous resistance would be where I would be slightly worried about this market running out of steam. In summary, I would remain bullish unless the FED offer a hawkish surprise.
WTI Crude futures
Have we seen the 2019 high? Trump has continued to talk about Oil price being too high and whilst this is nothing new, it should be monitored as a key factor to answer the question above.
Technically, the 4th and 5th of April are key and if we do get to those levels and the $60 handle the bears will start to get excited. Friday’s aggressive move lower could easily be reversed in the coming days – let’s not forget how this market can move but for now it does seem we are at a key decision point. In previous briefings and reports we talked about the Importance of the 65.70 area and despite a brief break above, part of this move lower could well be down to profit taking.
The failure to close back above key resistance on Friday may well be telling for this market. I expect Gold to have another test of its lower trend line and from then on it could start to get interesting.
A break of the trend and price could move quickly to the low of December 14th. Fundamentally, price action will be volatile this week especially from the FED and NFP so I wouldn’t be pressing sell right away – but Friday’s rejection has given the bears the advantage…. for now.
1.3040 is the big level. Above here would also see a break of the trend-line that comes down from the 2019 high and we could see a fast move up to the 12th April highs on a change in sentiment. To the downside I would keep a close eye on the low of February 14th but I’m not quite sure we could sustain a move lower towards the 2019 low just yet.
Ultimately you can draw as many trendlines you want and place multiple moving averages, but Brexit will be the driver once again as Parliament are back after their much-needed Easter break. Current sentiment remains bearish below 1.3040. More on this in Anthony’s fundamental debrief and his suggestion of four key GBP considerations for the week ahead HERE.
Have a great week.
Anthony Cheung – Head of Market Analysis
Sam North - Associate
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