Amplify Weekly Strategy 13th-17th May 2019

Amplify Weekly Strategy 13th-17th May 2019


Monday: CN FDI, JN Leading Index, AU Home Loans, Fed's Clarida, Rosengren, Kaplan, BoC's Lane to speak

Tuesday: JN Current Account, 30-yr Govt Bond Auction, AU NAB Business Confidence, GE/SP CPI, UK Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings, GE ZEW Economic Sentiment, EU Industrial Production, IT 3/7/30-yr Govt Bond Auctions, WR OPEC Monthly Report, NFIB Small Business Optimism, Import/Export Price Index, Weekly API Inventories, Fed's George, Daly to speak, US Secretary of State Pompeo Meets Russia counterpart Lavrov in Russia

Wednesday: AU Westpac Consumer Sentiment, Wage Price Index, CN Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Unemployment Rate, JN Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Machine Tools, GE GDP, 30-yr Govt Bond Auction, FR CPI, IT Industrial New Orders/Sales, EU Employment Change, GDP, WR IEA Monthly Report, US Retail Sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, Weekly DoE Inventories, CA CPI, Fed's Quarles, ECB's Coeure, Praet to speak

Thursday: JN PPI, AU Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, CN House Prices, IT CPI, Trade Balance, EU Eurogroup Meeting, Trade Balance, US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing PMI, Weekly Jobless Claims, CA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Manufacturing Sales, RBA Bullock to speak, US Earnings: Walmart

Friday: EU CPI, Finance Ministers Meeting, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Rig Count

MACRO OVERVIEW - Anthony Cheung, Head of Market Analysis (@AWMCheung)

· Introduction and overview of sentiment this morning (00:00)

· Updates on the latest status of US/China trade talks (02:40)

· UK PM May aims to reopen Brexit talks so what comes next? (10:30)

· Italian yields creep higher ahead of Eurogroup meeting this week (15:17)

· Supply risks remain a clear and present factor in the crude market (16:58)

· A summary of important calendar events this week (19:00)

· Sam North gives an overview of the technical set-up across different asset classes (21:25)

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW – Sam North, Associate (@snorth19)

S&P 500 Futures

Ultimately Trade Talks will drive this market higher or lower but there are some key levels to be aware of that could accelerate things in either direction. Last week’s low & 2833 on the Futures is important to the bulls.

If we get a break and close below that area, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see a more forceful move towards 2800, the 200DMA and the low of 25th March. This market is poised nicely but unless Trump comes out with an array of positive trade comments, I wouldn’t be rushing to get long again just yet.

WTI Crude Oil

Having a look at the correlation between Crude Oil and US Equities and the tightness is incredible. Did Oil give the wink a couple of weeks ago? It certainly looked that way.

If Oil can hold firm on $60 then that could help support the S&P for now. We have been stuck in such a tight range for the commodity that I think things only get interesting should be get back above $63 or below the 6th may low. Hold firm for now and wait for the market to tell you what is going on would be my advice.

Gold Futures

I could copy and paste what I said last week for Gold and the chart is pretty much the same. 1290 area is massively important and so is the trendline you see starting from last year’s low. There is also a shorter trend-line to be aware of on the hourly chart which could provide a shorter-term opportunity if that breaks to the downside. See this Morning’s Briefing for a more intraday look at the markets.

1250 and the 200DMA are key longer-term support areas that I would keep an eye on should the sellers attempt another break of the trend.

GBPUSD Futures

Having a look at GBPUSD or EURUSD I have to say it is quite tricky in predicting where these markets will go. EURUSD looks so messy and I would favour selling any pushes higher but technically it doesn’t look too appealing right now.

For Cable, that 1.3030/40 area yet again has proved how key it is. Key supports should that break and close are listed on the chart, but I would not be too surprised to see a quick push down to 1.2900. From a buying point of view, I would be interested if we close above Friday’s high and then look at targeting 1.3200 with the 3rd May high.

Amplify Trade Ideas

Tommaso Iaquone (@tommasoiaquone) – Long Gold on break of Pennant.

Charlie Hyett (@CO_Hyett) – Long from 2790 area.

Have a great week,

Amplify team

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