Turkey begins offensive in Syria
UK Parliament to sit on Saturday after the EU Summit
DUP rejects offer on Irish backstop
_______________ Macro Review It was another choppy day in the market today as traders await the release of the FED minutes tonight and a cleared assessment of US/China trade talks. It has not been the easiest week so far, with markets in the fulcrum of geopolitical risk. Brexit, Trade and Recession Risk remain the top three risks which have been moving markets in the last year and look like the only concern to traders. The feeling is that the rest doesn't just matter for now and people are just waiting for a breakthrough or a definitive outcome. Therefore, patience remains the most valuable commodity.
On the Brexit front, the main highlight for today involves the DUP rejecting the latest EU concession which provides a mechanism for the Norther Irish border to leave the Irish backstop. GBPUSD closes in negative after the DUP party confirmed their disagreement. The rest of the FX space traded choppy amid as traders await US data going into the end of the week.
Looking overseas, tonight we will be awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes and more details on the FED intentions going forward. The base case scenario is for at least another cut by the end of the year. However, the main focus will be on the FED communications over the bank's plan going into 2020. The latest round of US data still points out to an economy with a tight labor market where wages are fatiguing to rise. Tomorrow, will be awaiting the US Core CPI for August, which is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY and down tick to 0.2% MoM from the previous month. ________________ EU Close
If you missed the morning briefing from the desk click HERE