Amplify Trading Global Markets Review - 16th October 2019

Amplify Trading Global Markets Review - 16th October 2019

Today's Highlights

  • UK PM told cabinet there is a chance of securing a good deal - PM Spokesman

  • US to impose sanctions on Turkey after rejection of ceasefire in Syria

  • Trump says "Deal with China ready to be papered" 

  • US Retails Sales disappoint expectations

Macro Review

If I had to list all Brexit related tweets from today it will probably make you run to the nearest pub, unless you made money out of trading GBPUSD today. In summary, today we had a series of headlines pointing out to a possible compromise between the EU and UK that might also meet the agreement of the DUP - the real tip to the balance in Westminster. As previously mentioned, the scenarios ahead are multiple. However, any deal between the EU and UK will have to be approved by Parliament and - given the relevance of the Norther Irish Border at stake - with the current numbers, the support of the DUP to approve any deal will be vital. NO DUP NO PARTY. In case, the road to a comprise is interrupted by Westminster internal disputes, then perhaps the most reasonable option in the hands of the Government, will be to delay Brexit and call for a general election. 

Tonight PM Johnson will address the 1922 Committee Tories MPs at 20.30 CEST and make clearer the Government action ahead of the EU Summit tomorrow. Moreover, as a function of today's outcome the special sitting of MPs in Parliament on Saturday 19th Oct should make narrow down the different paths available for the Government.

1) Government negotiate a deal at the upcoming EU Summit on the 17th and call for a meaningful vote on the 19th 2) No deal is agreed with EU, therefore Government asks for meaningful vote on old deal and in case of rejection opt for extension and general election. 3) Government could request and extension and table a motion for a general election for the following week (not clear if Monday or Thursday) 4) Government refuses extension and tables a motion for a General election. Which most likely will not be supported, given the missing precondition of an extension. This will leave the Government with the option to dare the opposition either support a no-confidence vote or support an early election. Too late to apply for a UK Passport?

________________ EU Close

If you missed the morning briefing from the desk click HERE

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