UK and Ireland see "Pathway to Possible Deal"
Trump tweets: "China wants a deal but do I?"
Erdogan threatens to "Open Doors" for new refugee crisis in Europe
It is very tricky to stay behind Brexit and Trade war headlines, especially when markets react to specifically inconclusive news. American equities continue the usual buy the rumors "mute" the news, after rallying on a back of Trump's awkward tweet, whereas GBP pops on the back headlines that are not even new. Unless Parliament calls for a new General Election any deal with the EU will have to be agreed by Parliament and specifically by the DUP to get a majority. Therefore for now nothing has really changed and every option remains on the tables. With a very good chance, the emergency Parliament seat on the 19th October could shade some light on the Brexit saga. Here are some possible scenarios on 19th October:
1) Government negotiate a deal at the upcoming EU Summit on the 17th and call for a meaningful vote on the 19th
2) No deal is agreed with EU, therefore Government asks for meaningful vote on old deal and in case of rejection opt for extension and general election.
3) Government could request and extension and table a motion for a general election for the following week (not clear if Monday or Thursday)
4) Government refuses extension and tables a motion for a General election. Which most likely will not be supported, given the missing precondition of an extension. This will leave the Government with the option to dare the opposition either support a no-confidence vote or support an early election.
Crystal clear right?
If you missed the morning briefing from the desk click HERE